Emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control based on cumulative prospect theory and hybrid-information MADM

PurposeDecision-making problems in emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control (EPAC) are generally characterized by risky and uncertainty due to multiple possible emergency states and vagueness of decision information. In the process of emergency plan selection for EPAC, it is necessary to consider several obvious features, i.e. different states of epidemics, dynamic evolvement process of epidemics and decision-makers' (DMs') psychological factors such as risk preference and loss aversion.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a novel decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed to solve emergency plan selection of an epidemic problem, which is generally regarded as hybrid-information multi-attribute decision-making (HI-MADM) problems in major epidemics. Initially, considering the psychological factors of DMs, the expectations of DMs are chosen as reference points to normalize the expectation vectors and decision information with three different formats. Subsequently, the matrix of gains and losses is established according to the reference points. Furthermore, the prospect value of each alternative is obtained and the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives under different states are calculated. Accordingly, the ranking of alternatives can be obtained.FindingsThe validity and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by a case calculation of emergency plan selection. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with fuzzy similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.Originality/valueAn emergency plan selection method is proposed for EPAC based on CPT, taking into account the psychological factors of DMs.HighlightsThis paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.

Recent advances in ginsenosides against respiratory diseases: Therapeutic targets and potential mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory diseases mainly include asthma, influenza, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary hypertension, lung fibrosis, and lung cancer. Given their high prevalence and poor prognosis, the prevention and treatment of respiratory diseases are increasingly essential. In particular, the development for the novel strategies of drug treatment has been a hot topic in the research field. Ginsenosides are the major component of Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer (ginseng), a food homology and well-known medicinal herb. In this review, we summarize the current therapeutic effects and molecular mechanisms of ginsenosides in respiratory diseases. METHODS: The reviewed studies were retrieved via a thorough analysis of numerous articles using electronic search tools including Sci-Finder, ScienceDirect, PubMed, and Web of Science. The following keywords were used for the online search: ginsenosides, asthma, influenza, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pulmonary hypertension (PH), lung fibrosis, lung cancer, and clinical trials. We summarized the findings and the conclusions from 176 manuscripts on ginsenosides, including research articles and reviews. RESULTS: Ginsenosides Rb1, Rg1, Rg3, Rh2, and CK, which are the most commonly reported ginsenosides for treating of respiratory diseases, and other ginsenosides such as Rh1, Rk1, Rg5, Rd and Re, all primarily reduce pneumonia, fibrosis, and inhibit tumor progression by targeting NF-κB, TGF-ß/Smad, PI3K/AKT/mTOR, and JNK pathways, thereby ameliorating respiratory diseases. CONCLUSION: This review provides novel ideas and important aspects for the future research of ginsenosides for treating respiratory diseases.

The protective effects of baicalin for respiratory diseases: an update and future perspectives.

Background: Respiratory diseases are common and frequent diseases. Due to the high pathogenicity and side effects of respiratory diseases, the discovery of new strategies for drug treatment is a hot area of research. Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi (SBG) has been used as a medicinal herb in China for over 2000 years. Baicalin (BA) is a flavonoid active ingredient extracted from SBG that BA has been found to exert various pharmacological effects against respiratory diseases. However, there is no comprehensive review of the mechanism of the effects of BA in treating respiratory diseases. This review aims to summarize the current pharmacokinetics of BA, baicalin-loaded nano-delivery system, and its molecular mechanisms and therapeutical effects for treating respiratory diseases. Method: This review reviewed databases such as PubMed, NCBI, and Web of Science from their inception to 13 December 2022, in which literature was related to "baicalin", "Scutellaria baicalensis Georgi", "COVID-19", "acute lung injury", "pulmonary arterial hypertension", "asthma", "chronic obstructive pulmonary disease", "pulmonary fibrosis", "lung cancer", "pharmacokinetics", "liposomes", "nano-emulsions", "micelles", "phospholipid complexes", "solid dispersions", "inclusion complexes", and other terms. Result: The pharmacokinetics of BA involves mainly gastrointestinal hydrolysis, the enteroglycoside cycle, multiple metabolic pathways, and excretion in bile and urine. Due to the poor bioavailability and solubility of BA, liposomes, nano-emulsions, micelles, phospholipid complexes, solid dispersions, and inclusion complexes of BA have been developed to improve its bioavailability, lung targeting, and solubility. BA exerts potent effects mainly by mediating upstream oxidative stress, inflammation, apoptosis, and immune response pathways. It regulates are the NF-κB, PI3K/AKT, TGF-ß/Smad, Nrf2/HO-1, and ERK/GSK3ß pathways. Conclusion: This review presents comprehensive information on BA about pharmacokinetics, baicalin-loaded nano-delivery system, and its therapeutic effects and potential pharmacological mechanisms in respiratory diseases. The available studies suggest that BA has excellent possible treatment of respiratory diseases and is worthy of further investigation and development.

A pan-variant mRNA-LNP T cell vaccine protects HLA transgenic mice from mortality after infection with SARS-CoV-2 Beta.

Licensed COVID-19 vaccines ameliorate viral infection by inducing production of neutralizing antibodies that bind the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and inhibit viral cellular entry. However, the clinical effectiveness of these vaccines is transitory as viral variants escape antibody neutralization. Effective vaccines that solely rely upon a T cell response to combat SARS-CoV-2 infection could be transformational because they can utilize highly conserved short pan-variant peptide epitopes, but a mRNA-LNP T cell vaccine has not been shown to provide effective anti-SARS-CoV-2 prophylaxis. Here we show a mRNA-LNP vaccine (MIT-T-COVID) based on highly conserved short peptide epitopes activates CD8+ and CD4+ T cell responses that attenuate morbidity and prevent mortality in HLA-A*02:01 transgenic mice infected with SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351). We found CD8+ T cells in mice immunized with MIT-T-COVID vaccine significantly increased from 1.1% to 24.0% of total pulmonary nucleated cells prior to and at 7 days post infection (dpi), respectively, indicating dynamic recruitment of circulating specific T cells into the infected lungs. Mice immunized with MIT-T-COVID had 2.8 (2 dpi) and 3.3 (7 dpi) times more lung infiltrating CD8+ T cells than unimmunized mice. Mice immunized with MIT-T-COVID had 17.4 times more lung infiltrating CD4+ T cells than unimmunized mice (7 dpi). The undetectable specific antibody response in MIT-T-COVID-immunized mice demonstrates specific T cell responses alone can effectively attenuate the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results suggest further study is merited for pan-variant T cell vaccines, including for individuals that cannot produce neutralizing antibodies or to help mitigate Long COVID.

Mental health problems of preschool children during the COVID-19 home quarantine: A cross-sectional study in Shanghai, China.

Objective: As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spread across Shanghai, China, in late February 2022 and protective measures to mitigate its impact were enacted, this study aimed to estimate how home quarantine affected the mental health of preschool children in Shanghai, China and explore the association between lifestyle factors and mental health during this special period. Methods: A cross-sectional online survey of 2,110 preschool students from Shanghai, China, was conducted during May 20-25,2022. Preschooler' mental health (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, SDQ) and daily activities were reported by parents. Results: The sample involved 2,110 children with a mean age of 4.65 years [standard deviation (SD): 0.91, range: 3-6 years]. Boys and children whose mother's education level were college and high school had higher rate of mental health problems. Boys had significantly higher rates of peer problems and prosocial behaviors than girls. The 3-year-old group had significantly higher rates of prosocial behaviors than other groups. As compared to the Shanghai norm and the SDQ results of preschool children in Shanghai in 2019 (SH2019), there were a significant decrease in emotional symptoms score, as well as a significant increase in conduct problems score. Additionally, peer problems score significantly increased compared to SH2019. Decreased time spent on daily sleep was associated with the increased risk for preschoolers' mental health problems. Conclusion: There was an increase in the frequency of emotional and behavioral problems, especially regarding conduct problems and peer problems, in preschool children during the COVID-19 home quarantine in Shanghai, China. Boys, younger preschool children and children whose mother's education level were college and high school may be especially vulnerable to emotional and behavioral problems. It was also found that decreased time spent on sleep may aggravate preschool children's mental health problems. It may be beneficial to differentiate and focus on conducting psychoeducation and implementing psycho-behavioral interventions to solve these issues.

Ecology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020: A machine learning modelling analysis.

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.

Lipid nanoparticle-mediated lymph node-targeting delivery of mRNA cancer vaccine elicits robust CD8+ T cell response.

The targeted delivery of messenger RNA (mRNA) to desired organs remains a great challenge for in vivo applications of mRNA technology. For mRNA vaccines, the targeted delivery to the lymph node (LN) is predicted to reduce side effects and increase the immune response. In this study, we explored an endogenously LN-targeting lipid nanoparticle (LNP) without the modification of any active targeting ligands for developing an mRNA cancer vaccine. The LNP named 113-O12B showed increased and specific expression in the LN compared with LNP formulated with ALC-0315, a synthetic lipid used in the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty. The targeted delivery of mRNA to the LN increased the CD8+ T cell response to the encoded full-length ovalbumin (OVA) model antigen. As a result, the protective and therapeutic effect of the OVA-encoding mRNA vaccine on the OVA-antigen-bearing B16F10 melanoma model was also improved. Moreover, 113-O12B encapsulated with TRP-2 peptide (TRP2180-188)-encoding mRNA also exhibited excellent tumor inhibition, with the complete response of 40% in the regular B16F10 tumor model when combined with anti-programmed death-1 (PD-1) therapy, revealing broad application of 113-O12B from protein to peptide antigens. All the treated mice showed long-term immune memory, hindering the occurrence of tumor metastatic nodules in the lung in the rechallenging experiments that followed. The enhanced antitumor efficacy of the LN-targeting LNP system shows great potential as a universal platform for the next generation of mRNA vaccines.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe scrub typhus in pediatric and elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus (ST) is a life-threatening infectious disease if appropriate treatment is unavailable. Large discrepancy of clinical severity of ST patients was reported among age groups, and the underlying risk factors for severe disease are unclear. METHODS: Clinical and epidemiological data of ST patients were collected in 55 surveillance hospitals located in Guangzhou City, China, from 2012 to 2018. Severe prognosis and related factors were determined and compared between pediatric and elderly patients. RESULTS: A total of 2,074 ST patients including 209 pediatric patients and 1,865 elderly patients were included, with a comparable disease severity rate of 11.0% (95% CI 7.1%-16.1%) and 10.3% (95% CI 9.0%-11.8%). Different frequencies of clinical characteristics including lymphadenopathy, skin rash, enlarged tonsils, etc. were observed between pediatric and elderly patients. Presence of peripheral edema and decreased hemoglobin were the most important predictors of severe illness in pediatric patients with adjusted ORs by 38.99 (9.96-152.67, p<0.001) and 13.22 (1.54-113.50, p = 0.019), respectively, while presence of dyspnea and increased total bilirubin were the potential determinants of severe disease in elderly patients with adjusted ORs by 11.69 (7.33-18.64, p<0.001) and 3.17 (1.97-5.11, p<0.001), respectively. Compared with pediatric patients, elderly patients were more likely to receive doxycycline (64.8% v.s 9.9%, p<0.001), while less likely to receive azithromycin therapy (5.0% v.s 41.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The disease severity rate is comparable between pediatric and elderly ST patients, while different clinical features and laboratory indicators were associated with development of severe complications for pediatric and elderly patients, which is helpful for diagnosis and progress assessment of disease for ST patients.

Current Developments and Challenges of mRNA Vaccines.

mRNA vaccines have brought about a great revolution in the vaccine fields owing to their simplicity and adaptability in antigen design, potential to induce both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses and demonstrated high efficacy, and rapid and low-cost production by using the same manufacturing platform for different mRNA vaccines. Multiple mRNA vaccines have been investigated for both infectious diseases and cancers, showing significant superiority to other types of vaccines. Although great success of mRNA vaccines has been achieved in the control of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, there are still multiple challenges for the future development of mRNA vaccines. In this review, the most recent developments of mRNA vaccines against both infectious diseases and cancers are summarized for an overview of this field. Moreover, the challenges are also discussed on the basis of these developments.

Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.

The changing pattern of enteric pathogen infections in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nation-wide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) including hand washing directives were implemented in China and worldwide to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, which are likely to have had impacted a broad spectrum of enteric pathogen infections. METHODS: Etiologically diagnostic data from 45 937 and 67 395 patients with acute diarrhea between 2012 and 2020, who were tested for seven viral pathogens and 13 bacteria respectively, were analyzed to assess the changes of enteric pathogen infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years. FINDINGS: Test positive rates of all enteric viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, with a relative decrease of 71•75% for adenovirus, 58•76% for norovirus, 53•50% for rotavirus A, and 72•07% for the combination of other four uncommon viruses. In general, a larger reduction of positive rate in viruses was seen among adults than pediatric patients. A rebound of rotavirus A was seen after September 2020 in North China rather than South China. Test positive rates of bacteria decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, excepting for nontyphoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter coli with 66•53% and 90•48% increase respectively. This increase was larger for pediatric patients than for adult patients. INTERPRETATION: The activity of enteric pathogens changed profoundly alongside the NPIs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Greater reductions of the test positive rates were found for almost all enteric viruses than for bacteria among acute diarrhea patients, with further large differences by age and geography. Lifting of NPIs will lead to resurgence of enteric pathogen infections, particularly in children whose immunity may not have been developed and/or waned. FUNDING: China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; National Natural Science Funds.

Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed. METHODS: MERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV. RESULTS: A total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10-7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18-0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV. CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic.